Projected Results (per 100 trades)
EV vs Win Rate (by R:R Ratio)
Each colored line is a different Risk:Reward ratio. The green zone (above $0) is where you're profitable. The red zone (below $0) is where you lose money. The point where a line crosses $0 is your break-even win rate.
Example: With a 2.0R trade (risk $100 to make $200), you only need ~33% wins to break even. With a 1.0R trade, you need 50%. Higher R:R = lower win rate needed!
Min Win Rate Required by R:R
This shows the minimum win rate you need to break even at each R:R level. Your actual win rate must be ABOVE this line to be profitable.
The math: Break-even win rate = 1 / (1 + R:R). At 1.0R you need 50%. At 2.0R you need 33.3%. At 3.0R you need just 25%.
📖 Key Terms Explained
The ratio of how much you risk losing vs. how much you target to gain on each trade.
1.0R means you risk $100 to make $100 (1:1). You need a 50% win rate to break even.
2.0R means you risk $100 to make $200 (1:2). You only need 33.3% wins to break even.
2.5R means you risk $100 to make $250 (1:2.5). You only need 28.6% wins to break even.
0.5R means you risk $100 to make $50 (1:0.5). You need 66.7% wins to break even.
The average dollar amount you expect to make (or lose) on each trade, accounting for your win rate and R:R.
If EV is positive, your system is profitable over time.
If EV is negative, you will lose money over time regardless of how "good" individual trades look.
The #R column shows the R:R ratio. The number before "R" = how many units of reward per 1 unit of risk.
So in the scenario table, "2.0R" = a trade where you target 2x what you risk. If you risk $200, you aim for $400 profit on a win.
Gross profits divided by gross losses. A profit factor of 2.0 means you make $2 for every $1 you lose. Target: above 1.0 (above 1.5 is solid, above 2.0 is excellent).
How far your actual win rate is above (or below) the break-even win rate. A positive edge means you have a statistical advantage.
A formula that tells you the optimal fraction of your account to risk per trade to maximize long-term growth. Most traders use Half-Kelly (half the recommended amount) for safety.
where p = win probability, q = 1-p, RR = reward-to-risk ratio.
#R column: The Risk:Reward ratio. 1.0R = risk $1 to make $1. 2.0R = risk $1 to make $2. 2.5R = risk $1 to make $2.50.
EV/Trade: Average $ you make per trade at that win rate and R:R. Per 100 Trades: Projected profit or loss over 100 trades. Green = profitable. Red = losing.
| Win Rate | R:R (#R) | EV / Trade | Per 100 Trades | Status |
|---|
Simulates thousands of random trading sequences using your win rate and avg profit/loss to show the range of possible outcomes and your probability of ruin (losing most of your account).